The Country must seek a new developmental narrative as we move into 2019 with the never ceasing to surprise national past time and the ever bewildering elections, approaching in a few months. Both the ruling BJP eying a second stint, and the challenger, the INC, fast recovering the lost ground, promise better governance, albeit treading different paths.
Will Bharatiya Janata Party, that saw a massive mandate in its favour in 2014, survive the general elections of 2019, fending off strong attacks from the Indian National Congress Party? Of course, the INC will need the support of several other small and big parties to pose a challenge since it does not have the traction to go solo at this time. BJP will do well, to realise that they too need the smaller parties, more so, this time round. Goalposts will really be set on who goes with whom.
Certain new elements coming into play appear to make a difference. The farmer crisis and its supposedly game changing solutions offered by various parties, from complete loan waivers to crop insurance to even cash being deposited into their accounts, the others being Jobs for youth, the GST implementation bloopers and its effect on pushing consumer prices upwards and the much commented on demonetisation and its effect on small businesses. The noise generated by alleged corruption versus alleged corruption of the two protagonists is also growing in decibels. The emergence of alternate leaders in the political arena coalescing into a wider, formidable opposition force is skewing the game for the incumbents.
Whatever be the story that unfolds, there is a different dynamic to consider beyond the ensuing electoral story. The options that lie ahead for the country in its attempt to a find a developmental narrative that, though continuing in effect to champion the majority Indians, does not cripple the economy’s future and the innovative strength of its multi religious and multi lingual population.
Several opposition parties have come together and some are regrouping, with the sole aim of ousting a popular leader from power. This leader would probably win hands down, if we had a Presidential system, to elect the executive leader, the Prime Minister, with the people directly electing him. Is, animus to one man a strong enough motive, for people also to feel the same, the electoral spoils will be privy soon. The ruling party has lost some of its allies to the opposition in the race. However, the internal fallacies and the fault lines within various parties and the ambitions of their leaders notwithstanding, might still bind them in the face of power sharing and an alleged aversion to the current dispensation.
Furthermore, this awkward alliance, with little in common apart from their opposition of the BJP, may actually provide it with ready caste based and religiously charged narratives to divide a fragile group of opposition and people, that is facile to say the least, whenever it needs and undermine endeavours of both. Further the effort of the ruling party to split the opposition unity may succeed, but the move may backfire on them by allowing for a greater resolve of the coalition of opposition parties, rid of potentially divisive religious issues to challenge and finally defeat BJP.
Another is the fact that the coalition politics and its leaders congregating together, as seen in the recent States that went to polls, encouraged by the new rhetoric coined by a resurgent Congress chief, and by the rise of intelligentsia, a little unfairly branded, the anti-establishment voices, under inclusive, non-religion-based slogans acceptable to all communities, namely “good governance”, “transparency”, institutional reforms”, “jobs for all”, “fair elections”, and the like.
On the other hand, the battle is about the Hindu ground for the BJP. Their manifesto and their pitch as seen in the elections of the last four and half years is evidence of that. “Hindu disunity” or “Hindu diversity” to be more correct, may turn out to be the proverbial Achilles heel for the BJP in the opposition narrative of Jobs and farmer distress not being addressed adequately. This political miscellany may turn out to be an expression of political maturity and discontent than a harbinger of any strife in the polity or its people.
Not, surprisingly, both have been striking at corruption by accusing each other of it. Bofors versus Rafale debate has seen an escalation in recent months, others being, who allowed the economic offenders to flee to who created the NPA’s. Corruption is a universal phenomenon. Can it continue to hold the interest of its people in election after election, when all they seek is the next decent meal? It can at best be a subject of research in our management schools. That said, the country cannot spiral into a whirlpool, without a moral compass and the political parties will do well to rise above partisan values, if they need the patronage of its people.
An important influence factor this election will be trolls that most certainly will float around and the fake news that will be peddled from even the best viewed websites. In the United States elections, Russian trolls were said to have faked news for political influence, but in our poorer towns and villages, where an average Indian does not even make 50 rupees a day, if the trolls have a simpler motive of “Easy Money” and if such fake news allows him a living, will he be open to lessons on moralities?
We cannot ignore the fact that whatever the direction chosen, the journey will be a painful one. The National institutions and the constitutional bodies have suffered far too long from malaise, and too much suspicion and distrust have been propagated among the Indian population to the benefit of politicians. Too much religious baiting and personal prejudices had been encouraged in the past for a new and inspiring India to rise, without the need for a lot of soul searching and bold policy shifts. We should expect an exciting period in our politics, hopefully marked by a confidence that will make a wholehearted acceptance of the multi religious nature, of our country. It is only with that acceptance that the country can move forward, without distractive and destructive internal squabbles, and prosper as a country. For this, we need to think long term and act with purpose.