The Indian game of thrones is manifest in its elections. How then, does one win elections in an era, where technology has all the answers? How will the elections be fought in future? Technology will disrupt all existing methods for sure. Will it affect a politicians connect with his electorate? A long winding election spectacle of yore has given way to sleek, effective and focussed conduct, though acerbic discourses have remained, proving that technology cannot change human behaviour. A billion people in India participate in the jamboree that lasts a little over two months every five years. Electronic voting machines have taken over the paper-based voting and counting. Where do we go from here? Can we see Aadhar Cards and technology link allowing any citizen to vote from anywhere? Why must a citizen visit a booth to vote? We can possibly see a 100 percent voting then, that can truly enhance the democracy quotient.
Throughout modern history, political parties and candidates have had only a limited number of traditional tools, to feel the pulse of the electorate. The recourse was only instinct rather than insight when running for office. Not anymore. Big data and data analytics have taken over the entire election spectacle end to end. Big data maximises the effectiveness of a campaign by being the heart, so to say, whereas Data Analytics is the mind. In a way, heart and mind have come together to rule. Current elections too are influenced by it and will only assume epic proportions in future.
Guerrilla Marketing is an advertising strategy that focuses on low-cost unconventional marketing tactics that yield maximum results. Social media is akin to guerrilla marketing, is extremely influential in swaying people’s opinion and outcomes of polls. From a purely social media campaigning of the recent past, we are increasingly moving onto data-driven campaigning. Math quants and data crushers used extensively by professionals can disseminate volumes of campaign data into actionable targeting information and shape voters opinion across the nation.
Strategists are also using targeted messaging and digital behavioural tracking like they do when a new product is launched. Future campaigns probably will target individuals, their likes and dislikes since mobile data and CRM assets can impact the results of a campaign when used quickly and effectively The next PM could actually be a product of Big Data + Social Data. This data-centric shift in advertising has enabled political parties to hone campaign approaches towards predicting and shaping outcomes. New technologies like hashtag targeting are turning tweets and social sharing, into paid media that we see on our smart phones or our Computers.
Today we see ad retargeting technologies where a certain message or a certain politician keeps popping up on the browser, just because we visited their websites for some information. Big data algorithms like those created by RadiumOne allow advertisers and political managers to better target consumers online, based on their social interactions across the web and on Facebook. It uses this important social data, along with mobile geolocation data and CRM data to fuel ad campaigns delivered online, via mobile, video and Facebook. Facebook, removing more than 1000 pages linked to political parties for “coordinated inauthentic behaviour” can only do so much and could go no further. It could even be accused of playing to the gallery.
Today, over 10 billion sharing events take place every month over social media. Massive amounts of data or big data is created every second with each like and share, and wherever we travel across the globe with our mobile devices. Campaign managers, smart as they are, find new ways of sorting this data to provide audiences with a seamless user experience as they move between channels and touch points, across their computer, mobile devices and tablets. Machine learning is based on statistical techniques that can automatically identify patterns in data. These can predict election outcomes by making algorithmic assessments of the outcomes, the current bread and butter of most of the TV channels and their Psephologists. It is also used to help voters be more informed about key political issues. Artificial Intelligence is the proverbial icing on the cake generating interesting projections as the data gets accumulated and mined. The concern However, is that AI can also be triggered to influence voters and outcomes. During the 2016 US presidential election, the data science firm ‘Cambridge Analytica’ did an extensive advertising campaign to target persuadable voters based on their individual psychology and people’s emotions. That case is still being investigated.
We too are increasingly witness to voters receiving different messages based on their susceptibility to different arguments. Sometimes messages that spread fear of what might happen if a certain individual or party returns to power or what could go wrong, if he or it does not. People religiously disposed, keep getting messages that play on their religious sentiments. This is AI, manipulating our social media behaviour by selective emotional triggers. We need to worry, since this is covert appeal and the messages themselves may be couched in insincerity and may be fake. Bots, autonomous accounts that are programmed to aggressively spread one-sided political messages, misinformation and fake news, manufacture the illusion of public support, a widespread tactic that attempts to shape public discourse and distort political sentiment. Bots played an almost sinister role in the US and French elections of the recent past.
Is everything AI bad for elections? Not so. The algorithmic tools that are used to mislead, misinform and confuse could equally be re-purposed to support democracy. Bots can actually be used to stop misinformation and fake news. AI could navigate through mounds of data and tell why the news is fake. It could even sift through the past political discourses of candidates, their parties and tell you why the candidate or his party must not be believed. AI tools can surely be used to rip apart the TV anchors and their affiliations sifting through their debates of the past and the present.
Use of AI agents and techniques in politics is here to stay. However, use of AI must commit to being used ethically and judiciously and must not be used to sway voters that undermines democracy. Unfortunately, AI as a tool is used by people and people are susceptible. Are then, future elections euphemisms for future Star wars?