The Global virus, COVID 19 is assuming monumental proportions the world over, with almost half a million cases recorded with the number increasing by the day. Remember, we are in a world completely networked and connected, be it by the Web or otherwise. Why is it that some countries, most technologically advanced, with the best health care facilities on the Globe have been hit the hardest? Every nation big and small has been at its receiving end with the US reporting more than 800 deaths while Iran is grappling with almost 2000 deaths. Italy with the second-best health care system in the world, has been severely tested while accounting for a staggering 7000 deaths in a matter of days, with no respite in sight. Spain with more than 2500 deaths and UK with almost 350 deaths have baffled the world. With global deaths approaching 20000 and at least 1500 added every day, this virus must be one of the most monstrous killer on the prowl. Several factors must be collated to make a discernible pattern out of the mayhem.
India, a country with 1.3 billion people, most of them poor, lacking even in basic facilities like food and shelter are also hit but not as hard. As on date, there have been about 550 active cases recorded out of which 11 died. The woefully inadequate medical facilities seem to have been offset with some of the best and committed medical practitioners, para medics and some very sensible measures implemented by the government. The complete lockdown announced and ruthlessly implemented by the forces on the ground seem to be having a salutary effect on the killer menace. The Indian example of dealing with the crisis must surely figure in science and management journals for a long time, though it still is too early to write an epilogue.
Wuhan, the most populous capital city of Hubei, largely irreligious province in China, is alleged to be the epicentre of the virus. China too reported almost 3500 deaths. What went wrong with this political, economic, financial, commercial, cultural and educational centre of Central China? Wuhan has been a traditional manufacturing hub for decades with five automobile giants promoting modern industrial changes in China and affecting the policies apart from economies across the world. The economic downturn that the other countries will experience will be as much a reflection of China’s manufacturing downturn as much as due to a complete disruption of every conceivable business activity in the world. For the rest of the world, China matters as a source of demand, a source of supply, and a focus of concern for financial markets. What if China does not come back on rails soon enough?
Several theories have been doing the rounds of the outbreak bordering on conspiracy to religion to science to clairvoyance. As the phrase goes, the ‘streets are talking’ the rumour mills are running overtime with social media hogging the lion’s share. A passage from the 1981 book ‘The Eyes of Darkness’ by Dean Koontz eerily predicts the Coronavirus outbreak that quickly went viral in which a character named Dombey narrates an account of a virus called ‘Wuhan-400’, the four-hundredth viable strain of man-made microorganisms created at that research centre, the RDNA lab outside the city of Wuhan. What is eerie about this story is that it gives intricate details about how the virus affects the human body with a chilling resemblance to the Coronavirus. Is this true? Was this meant to be a bioweapon? Why were the Chinese scientists in Canada accused of spying and stripped of their access in the past to Canada’s National Microbiology Lab which is known to work on some of the deadliest pathogens?
Such questions need credible answers for the human faith in humanity to be restored. In another take on the genesis of COVID, the Chinese health authorities and the World Health Organization said that “most” cases had links to the seafood market. Was it a sleight of hand that prompted this supposition? Another theory suggests that the coronavirus pandemic was caused by 5G technology and electromagnetic radiation which was debunked by many virologists as fast as it originated. That it was made by an American doctor Thomas Cowan who is on a disciplinary probation makes his credibility susceptible. Does it make his theory too susceptible?
A research paper on Coronaviruses Replication and Pathogenesis published in 2016, describes Coronaviruses as enveloped positive-sense, unusually large RNA genome viruses, characterized by club-like spikes that project from their surface with a unique replication strategy that cause a variety of diseases in mammals and birds ranging from enteritis in cows and pigs and upper respiratory disease in chickens to potentially lethal human respiratory infections. Until a vaccination or a cure is found, like all contagious diseases, this one too needs people to practice home quarantine. To save themselves and others.
What is However, of immediate concern and would be a serious one for many more years into the future is the hit, the economy, the health sector and the markets have taken. A downtrend of an economy is being pushed to dire straits. More than 90% of the country’s workforce is estimated to be in the informal sector. The Economic Survey 2017-2018 estimated that 87% of the firms in the country, representing 21% of total turnover, are purely informal, outside both the tax and social security nets. They have taken a colossal hit with many laid off and many others taking a cut and many businesses shutting shop. This crisis has led to a mass exodus of migrant labour back to their villages, mainly in Bihar, west Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. Several hotels that are lifelines in cities like Mumbai, employ migrant labour from the southern States who suddenly have found themselves left in cold. A number of daily wagers like those making a living by ironing clothes in the neighbourhood or washing utensils or doing household chores or those who do odd jobs are all migrant workers. Some of them live in ‘rent a bed, a night’ in slums across the length and breadth of our cities. A standstill renders them redundant, akin to sudden power failure in the midst of an important surgery. What is the choice? Either the virus will get them or the hunger will. A real Hobson’s choice.