A master strategist of a principal party is ecstatic and almost relishes, “Modi, Vs Rest” in 2019. Can this be the stunning preview of a trailer that can unfold itself to be the pot boiler in a years’ time? This reminds us of a classic “Captain America – The Winter Soldier” or even the story of Prince Abhimanyu of Mahabharata. After the cataclysmic events in New York with his fellow avengers, Steve Rogers, aka Captain America, in trying to adjust to modern times, is thrown into a web of intrigue that places the whole world at risk, by an attack on his shield by his new allies. Rogers struggles to expose an ever-widening conspiracy, but he and his team soon come up against unexpected enemies. So does Abhimanyu, who valiantly fights his unexpected enemies with the wheel of his chariot. However, Abhimanyu wasn’t as lucky as Steve Rogers in the end.
Who is likely to be this unexpected enemy? Like in the anecdotes, can the protagonist fight the unexpected enemy and laugh all the way to glory or fall by the wayside. While physics and mathematics may tell us how the universe began, they are not much use in predicting human behaviour, because there are far too many equations to solve, far too many people to comprehend and far too many wheels within wheels to decipher. So, we have a potential cryptogram on hand.
The trailer opens to a an audience with the very enterprising protagonist extolling virtues of staying together, playing together, and laughing together for winning a virtuous endgame. There are fifty-five other antagonists who are watching the play unfold, but will not let the story unfold in any linear or predictable, a le Ram Gopal Varma horror movie or an inane David Dhawan movie, or even a thrilling Jackie Chan action movie.
Coalitions have probably come to stay in Indian polity, be it to govern and survive or to build an aura of invincibility, credibility and or acceptability. The one – to – many paradigm also could work in 2019, only if the “many” is seen to be or deliberately put in disarray. Amit Shah’s campaign managers seem to be toying, almost relishing and are supremely confident in Rabindranath Tagore’s wisdom of “Jodi Tor Dak Shune Keu Na AseTobeEkla Cholo Re”, “If no one responds to your call, then go your own way alone”. A great philosophy indeed, but will it work this time around? The party has a massive network of committed people at different levels, tremendous organisational strength, and very effective booth management strategy in place. Above all a very passionate and charismatic leader to drive this well-oiled engine.
Further they use technology to the hilt, almost perfecting the art to the last “T”. Social media enables peer-to-peer dialogue, public discourse and political messaging to reach more potential voters during campaigns. Through the clever use of technology, they have woken up entire generations of new potential voters. Today most electoral management bodies around the world use new technologies with the aim of improving the electoral process. These technologies range from use of basic office automation tools, to more sophisticated data processing tools, letting data scientists have a field day.
While these technologies open up new frontiers and offer new possibilities for the electoral process, especially for voting operations, there may be unforeseen risks involved, such as an increase in vote selling or difficulty in auditing election results. Careful consideration also needs to be given to the risks of inappropriate or untimely introduction of technology, especially if it has the potential to compromise transparency, local ownership or sustainability of the electoral process. Cambridge Analytics is just a case in point. EVM’s are another. Some parties have already started complaining and the powers that be, need to be sensitive to these.
Missing heartbeats have to be noticed and the best bet to do that is the heart itself, where it resides. Several missing beats can be traced to Rajasthan, Haryana, Bihar, UP, and Maharashtra, which were the bulwarks of the party the last time around and do not seem to be so, in the current edition. One more beat missing can render the body numb. Hence the one-to-many model will need to be reengineered.
Politics over the years have moved from ideologically similar positions to being driven by personalities alone Hence individual leaders of smaller parties would tend to make a big difference and kill in the coming days. Leaders who can make a transition to move beyond ideological positions and seamlessly integrate the local ethos, would obviously be the king makers. Though smaller parties in a coalition prefer to be a part of the coalition after the results, which could be construed as opportunistic, true coalition managers and proponents must see that it happens before voting, for consolidation of vote bases is the real key.
A real challenge and a game on for the spectators, is if the grand old party decides to samba with its ideological brother like NCP sweating it out in Maharashtra, remains a humble younger brother to SP, BSP, burying the eminently forgettable hatchets along the way, jazzes along with Lalu Prasad, goes largely solo in Haryana, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, with an intelligent mix of local satraps, careens with DMK in the south, cavorts with Jagan’s party or even plays tango with Naidu in Andhra Pradesh, or boogies with Kumaraswamy in Karnataka, gambols with the Patel’s in Gujarat, it could probably create a heady concoction that could pitch it back as a super hit blockbuster come 2019. Others in the puzzle are anyway fence sitters and waltzing with them would mean stretching backwards. The missing link in the jigsaw for a national colour is the north east. Even if the entire NE sends only 23MPs to the Centre, its strategic importance cannot be undervalued. In the words of a former CM of Nagaland, PhesaoVamuzo, NE is the RCC of India. A common minimum manifesto that recognises this fact would start bridging the gaps.
Assam produces 25% of crude and 30% of Natural gas of all that is produced in this Country. Known as black gold, the gulf was known to employ Indians by the thousands. Assam can do the same, not only for its own, but also for its neighbours. If the common manifesto has something for Assam that aims at modernising its tea industry, currently being the world’s largest at 800 million kg, will assuage the hurt feelings. Products like brooms bring the tribal people together. Maximising production with modern methods of irrigation, cardamom and cinnamon can render them wealth creators. Hill states are exceptionally mineral rich, but exploration is not allowed due to 6th schedule of tribal land act. Coupled with coal ban, the shackles seem to be complete. Any dispensation that addresses these, with an implementable plan, will win the hearts and the votes. The lessons drawn here will come handy, in other mineral rich states. Further, South Asian corridor, dry port at Mizoram, rail connection via Manipur to Myanmar and Lumding in Assam can bind people and families together.
A manifesto that emphasises proactively, job creation, manufacture and welfare of citizens can be a heady mix. Make in India incidentally has a potential not explored yet, it not being diligently linked with sectors like agriculture, infrastructure, railways and defence, coupled with projection of farm – to – home as a national project, can bring more money to the farmer’s pocket, collectively driving a chill up the spine of the opposition. Assuming of course, an astute leader like Krishna drives this potpourri, the one – to – many strategists will need to stretch their grey matter many notches above the mundane. Can the grand old party rise to this moment of reckoning? Can the party in power counter it?
The one – to – many strategists, will of course have to be wary, of all the possible grand designs and will need to either discard the high horse they currently ride, or see that the opposition does not ride the same. The numerous interplays that sometimes sublimely and sometimes, blatantly would manifest and playout in coming days, will throw up multiple stories within stories, a le Mahabharata and a le Panchatantra in coming days.