King Midas is popularly remembered in Greek mythology for his ability to turn everything he touched into gold. His Midas touch is used as an epithet to one who converts every adversity into success. PM Modi, time and again has demonstrated a splendid Midas touch. He has the uncanny ability to convert every adversity into good fortune, which he then cultivates assiduously into success. He is currently riding a crest, on a song and probably can do no wrong.
Bihar election was almost a lost cause when campaigning started, little more than a month ago. Huge 15-year anti-incumbency was staring at the face, Covid skewed the people perception with job losses and migrant crisis waiting to derail the campaign. Nothing would awe or fool him. He had a strategy and executed it to perfection. “It ain’t as bad as you think! It will look better in the morning. Leaving the office at night with a winning attitude affects more than you alone; it conveys that attitude to your followers” So said Colin Powell, a legendary public statesman and former US Secretary of State. PM Modi must have believed in those words.
Another gem of Powell is “It can be done. Leaders make things happen” If one approach doesn’t work, find another. During the early campaign days, when he realised that there was public anger against Nitish Babu, his images were taken off the posters. He took over the campaigning and led it from the front all by himself, beating off a spirited challenge by an opponent who was not even half his age. He would probably have won hands down, if we had a Presidential system like in US.
No exit poll gave even half a chance to incumbent parties BJP and JDU, (NDA) to make a comeback, predicting that the ‘Maha Ghat Bandhan, (MGB) would win with handsome margins. This was not to be at least for one individual, PM Modi. He carried on his campaign, exactly the way he imagined, unhindered by what people said or thought. He has a superb leadership with a superb instinct. Faced with a tough decision, he used the time available to gather information that will inform his instinct. He ensured his followers knew him, where he was taking them and for what purpose. He set demanding standards and made sure they were met. Come counting day, he won against all odds. What made this possible?
Firstly, free distribution of the LPG cylinders, done through the Ujjwala Yojana, under which women in villages got one free LPG cylinder. This was so popular that all the women folk must have endeared to him boosting the numbers on the all-important day. Even the Muslim women folk must have used this as a payback time for abolition of triple talaq. Even as these are national issues, the master craftsman weaved them into the fabric of the State, creating a winning narrative.
Secondly, the migrant labour and their travails did derail one engine, that of Nitish babu. The PM However, changed it by pitching BJP as a party that will deliver even on its own, with or without JDU, off the other engine. The people took to the gambit rewarding with 65% of the seats contested. This effectively offset the losses incurred by JDU. He also played on the people’s fear by a recital that the State would fall back on days of anarchy. He obviously thrives on the quality or power of inspiring belief through credible actions.
This election has set off interesting possibilities. Whereas JDU did the honours of pulling the NDA vehicle in reverse, Congress seems to have done similar for the MGB. What would have been, had the BJP and RJD contested alone one to one? The numbers show that BJP would still have had an edge.
Another pointer is that BJP would gain if they were to contest against several parties coming together as one entity contrary to the popular belief. This However, assumes that the party has enough credibility of its own among people. A splintered opposition would rather eat into each other’s voter base complicating the dynamics of a win. As a consequence, it must reassess each splinter party, its people connect points and build an alternative narrative that can reassure people that they have everything it takes on their own.
The by-polls history in the country is intriguing too. It must be a matter of research to find, why the party in power wins almost all by-polls in a State. What is the blue print? Manage a certain number of legislators to circumvent the anti-defection law, preferably those without ministerial berths, make them defect, make them resign, hold elections again and win. Invariably 75% of defectors win on a different party. Why are the people complicit in this apparent hoax play? Is it not time the anti-defection law is reviewed?
What lessons are there for the opposition in the Bihar story? For one, the Congress must reassess its options, regroup with passion and purpose and instil a sense of urgency in restructuring the party. Rebranding and building credibility must be priority one. A national party that has ruled for over 50 years cannot for ever, be a part of a coalition of smaller parties for eventually, they would grow big, post a challenge and erode the bargaining power. Disparate groups must be brought on the same side or face complete annihilation.
Like the US has shown what a deeply divided populace it is, in their recent national elections, the Indian populace are also deeply divided on the basis of caste, religion and language, giving rise to a multitude of parties, each with its own specific interests. The internal fallacies and the fault lines within these parties and the ambitions of their leaders notwithstanding, we may still see them coming together, but the Bihar election has shown that such coming will be fraught with diminishing returns. Going into the future, the farmer crisis and its supposedly game changing solutions offered by various parties, from complete loan waivers to crop insurance to even cash being deposited into their accounts, the crisis of finding Jobs for youth and reviving the economy will hold centre stage. Leaders must constantly evolve and show the way. Perpetual optimism is a force multiplier. If a leader believes and has prepared his followers, the followers will believe. Then the results will follow.