Every Nation and every commentator in the World, has taken a swipe at the American Nation and the Biden administration for pulling out of Afghanistan. The critics have accused of conducting a rushed, poorly planned, and chaotic withdrawal. An important reason touted has been the would be plight of the Afghans after the withdrawal. I am neither a political commentator nor a foreign affairs expert. This is an outsider’s view on the eve of the pull out of the last US soldier from Afghan soil.
Is there one country in the world today, where its foreign policy is not influenced by either political factors or its economic geography? Economy and ideology are the only differentiators almost all times. If it is political hegemony sometimes, it is a need to flex the military might at other times.
Osama Bin Laden rose to fame, guiding his operations from Afghanistan when the UNSC applied sanctions on al-Qaeda and Taliban in 1999. 2001 saw three audacious terror attacks by al-Qaeda on the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon. Close to three thousand people died in the attacks. The then President George Bush correctly vowed to “win the war against terrorism” and resolved to use force against those responsible for the attacks. His intelligence agencies zeroed in on al-Qaeda and Osama in Afghanistan for the dastardly act.
A month later, the U.S. military, with British support and Northern Alliance, bombed Taliban forces. Soon the UN decided to send peace keeping forces. In the melee that followed, Osama escaped to Pakistan. Hamid Karzai was chosen the interim administrative head. Though the Taliban collapsed, militancy mounted in the rest of Afghanistan.
This was probably the first signal for the US to retreat. That they did not and forayed into Iraq must be a design that extended beyond Afghanistan. Instead, the U.S. military in 2002, began reconstruction, in a bid to expand the authority of the Kabul government. The ethnic Pashtuns and the US military should have gauged the larger context of the Taliban to fight against all odds. That they did not, meant poor ground intelligence.
Can an outside force, however mighty, and however well trained, really enforce peace almost 12000 kms away when highly motivated locals who understand the terrain well are willing to die? Even if it can, for how long? This should have crossed the American mind several times over. The US in May 2003 announced the culmination of the major war in Iraq though it kept smouldering for many more years.
This was the second signal for US to have retreated to the barracks. That they did not and went into reconstructing Afghanistan came at a huge cost in both men and material. A new constitution came into being and Hamid Karzai was elected President, amidst unprecedented terror and killings.
This was the third instance the American forces should have retreated for no one could have provided security cover either to the President or the people for ever. That they did not may have had something to do with Osama who once again surfaced in 2004 posing fresh challenges. July 2006 saw multiple attacks and killings of the forces. The governance collapsed.
The cat and mouse game continued into 2008 with both losing men and face. Come 2009, and the baton transferred to Barack Obama. The relay race continued with the forces swelling to 37 thousand. A process of training Afghan army to fight the Taliban too started. The increasing influence of the role of Pakistan was either missed deliberately or by a failure in intelligence. The US forces now swelled to almost 70,000.
It was increasingly difficult to keep peace amongst the warring groups and that the supposed re-construction and humanitarian values was only a façade. Instead of exiting, The Americans presided over another Karzai election. A 2010 declaration of the NATO members agreed on a phased withdrawal of forces that had now risen to 100,000. Osama, responsible for the 9/11 attacks was killed by U.S. forces in Pakistan in May 2011. Did they not see the Pakistan hand?
This should have been the fourth instance when the Americans should have retreated. That they did not, showed that they either could not or would not. Come 2013 and the backchannel peace talks failed. Islamic State militants too joined to make the war messier.
That President Barack Obama eventually announced a timetable before leaving the Whitehouse, for withdrawing most U.S. forces, by the end of 2016 was probably a dawning that this was a never-ending war. The baton passed on to Donald Trump. He however, announced adding several thousand more troops.
What a royal mess this is. Not just Taliban. Now fight the ISIS as well. Add to it a vicious Pakistan lurking behind the shadows. 2018 saw more violence and civilian deaths. Finally in February 2020, a deal was signed between US and the Taliban where troops would be scaled down in return for good behaviour. In November 2020 the US made announcement days before the baton passed to Joe Biden, that the troops would be scaled down to 2500 by January 2021.
Now if President Biden pledges full withdrawal by September 11, 2021 and also follows upon that, what was his fault? Did someone expect that the Americans would remain for ever in Afghanistan keeping peace? Every goal in the 20-year war sometimes overt, sometimes covert remained uncertain. Terrorist safe havens in Pakistan continue to flourish undermining every U.S. effort. Two decades of war’s tolls include 2500 U.S. troops 1200 NATO troops, 3500 contractors, 66000 Afghan Military Police, 50000 Afghan civilians, almost 100 Journalists and 2 trillion Dollars. So, who won? And who lost?
Critics say, the military equipment should have been taken back before the withdrawal. Simple logistics would suggest that this was almost impossible. Either you shift personnel or equipment. That Joe Biden chose his people shows a great maturity on his part. Wars must never be fought. If they are, then collateral damages must be accepted. The people of Afghanistan must learn to make peace with their rulers. The Taliban must see reason. Neighbouring countries must not fish. Democracy cannot be thrust upon. It has to evolve. Biden must be respected for his wisdom even if it came at the fifth opportunity. It neither casts America as non-trustworthy to its allies nor has it suddenly become weak kneed.