The festival of elections continues in the country, with several lined up for the next year. Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, are all due for elections in February/March 2022. Further, Himachal Pradesh in October and Gujarat in December will go to polls. If 2022 is termed an election year, it may not be out of context. How will the story pan out? Will BJP win again? Will it make a remarkable dent in the opposition’s fortunes once again? Equally interesting to see will be the strategies adopted by the parties. Nevertheless, nationalism, religion, people connect, temple politics, development work will undoubtedly occupy centre stage.
Every political party has important stakes in each of these States. Besides, lost man hours, and a general vitriolic faceoff, huge expenditure to the exchequer will be incurred. Add to this, we all have seen how Covid 19 pandemic has disrupted economy and rendered small businesses redundant. Several families are forced to live a hand to mouth existence. Can we now afford a ten-month election jamboree with a two-month prep time? Since they are all set to be conducted between March and December 2022, can we not tweak the constitution a little to hold all of them around July 2022? It is not as if no changes can be made or were ever made to the constitution. This is a just cause. If Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh lose a few months of their scheduled time, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab will gain a few months. Can BJP set the ball rolling since six out of seven of those States are also ruled by them? Did BJP not propose One Nation, One Election theory? It will be a small beginning in that pursuit.
Besides holding on to power, BJP will also want to win Punjab. For congress, this probably will be the last time they either swim ashore or be drowned for a long time to come. That said, there are several regional outfits that will vie for a place under the sun.
Goa, Manipur, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh with 40, 60, 70 and 68 seats respectively may be small individually but collectively make a major difference to BJP winning over Rajya Sabha. Uttar Pradesh with 403 seats can set the tone for future of Indian politics. Punjab with 117 seats and Gujarat with 182 seats will moderate the entire political space because of their strategic importance.
BJP has some cause for concern for, in the recently concluded Gram Panchayat elections in UP, massive by any standards, with around 13 lakh candidates vying for 8 lakh posts, that included 3,050 zila panchayat wards, over 75,000 kshetra panchayat wards and over 7 lakh gram panchayat wards, they could win only 900 out of 3050 candidates backed by them. SP claimed 1000. The BSP with 300 and Congress and AAP close to 70 each shared the spoils. Though they may not accurately tell the story that would unfold in the next few months, they certainly have some pointers. The stakes for BJP are massive. Even higher than they had in West Bengal. Ram Mandir not only has a sentimental value for 80% Hindus of the Nation, it has huge political implications and ramifications for BJP. If they were to lose, they stand to miss out on the completion of the temple which may see delays beyond the general elections scheduled in 2024. The political mileage lost would be phenomenal.
Everything else, be it the law-and-order situation, or the farmers agitation or their distress, or the Covid pandemic’s mayhem or the job losses, will all pale in comparison to the gains accrued on completion of Ram mandir under their tenure. This sets the stage for a no holds barred fight in the next few months. ‘Abba jaan’ was only too mild and too soft a posturing. Its message though cannot be missed. A strong factor however in BJP’s favour is the almost 80% Hindu population in UP. The remaining 20% is predominantly Muslim. Sikhs and Christians are insignificant in numbers. The flip side could be the deep divisions in the Hindu numbers centred essentially on caste equations, a fact that various political parties would want to exploit. Be it SP, BSP or the BJP, fortunes of all of them depends on the OBC voting patterns though the Muslim numbers could tweak the results in several constituencies. The AIMIM (Owaisi factor) contesting elections in UP can actually mar the chances of both SP, BSP and the Congress. Will the opposition parties continue on a self-destruction mode? When it is needed that they come together, they seem to be going apart in multiple directions. Ideologically similar parties, if fight as separate entities, will only end up splitting the vote. Parties like AIMIM can cause divisions as they did in Bihar elections. The bruising elections in West Bengal too is there for drawing lessons.
Collectively we win and divided we fall is an old adage. It works well in UP. SP aligning with Congress, AAP and the AIMIM should generate interest. BJP aligning with BSP could be a master stroke. Other smaller parties are individual driven and do not necessarily skew the matrix. This scenario will ensure a grand one-on-one fight. However, several egos would be bruised, though their coming together will make the right noises for 2024.
In the days ahead, we could see extreme polarisation that seems to define all democratic nations resulting in vitriolic campaigns. The rhetoric from all concerned will be anything but polite. In fact, it will be acerbic and provocative at most times. We will see the social media and the electronic media abuzz with news fake or otherwise. Political parties will use these mediums to spread anxiety. Political discourses by all concerned may become abusive, slanderous and disgusting,
Anxiety is an affective intelligence theory. It clogs the decision-making capabilities, when influenced by ideologies. Voters who report anxiety regarding an election are more likely to vote for candidates whose policies they prefer. Whereas issues like price rise, or safety of the womenfolk will be raised by the opposition, the thought of being hauled up by the authorities for believing in seemingly diverse views will drive fear in people. Statesmanship and maturity will be required on the part of parties, leaders and candidates, if this were not to be so. Can we expect better from them this time round?