Recently New Delhi witnessed unprecedented pollution, in fact worst air pollution of any global capital, according to a World Air Quality Report from IQAir. A variety of factors caused this distress and misery. Kanpur, Faridabad, Gaya Varanasi, are all polluted, where particle matter concentration (PM2.5), is much above the threshold. Six of the World’s most polluted cities are in India. Fine particulates, specks of dust and soot 30 times smaller than a human hair, cause stroke, heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer, according to the WHO, which estimates air pollution claims 4.2 million lives worldwide annually. In total, 90% of the world’s population breathe harmful air. Is it not time, we acknowledge the problem and make long term amends at least in our Tier 1 cities?
Among a multitude of factors that affect pollution, at least in the in urban areas, 2-stroke engines, poor fuel quality, old vehicles, inadequate maintenance, congested traffic, poor road condition, old automotive technologies and poor traffic management are the top contenders. Use of Electric Vehicles could be an answer since hydrocarbon emission will be minimised. Can a bold decision to phase out internal combustion (IC) engine vehicles, paving the way for greater adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) by 2040 be made? Several incentives may have to be announced for vehicles operating on cleaner energy, rebates for early adoption and the revision of road taxes for qualifying vehicles.
Can we introduce a vehicle emission scheme (VES), like they do in Singapore, where a certain rebate is given or a surcharge is paid depending on the vehicle’s emissions? It is imperative to tackle the scourge of traffic congestion though, which continues to exact a large carbon toll.
Among many benefits, there is no emission for EV’s, since there is no fuel, easy on environment, generating half the emissions of an average comparable gasoline car, even when pollution from battery manufacturing is accounted for. Running costs are low since electricity is cheaper than petrol. Being less noisy, maintenance is low, less frequent and less expensive. On the flip side However, they tend to shorten the commute time since most EV’s have short ranges and the recharging can take a while.
Is the wish to move to EV’s by 2040 achievable? What would be the impact on current IC engine market and several ancillary markets it supports? Would there be more job losses? Any new technology initially tends to shift the employment markets, seeks new skills sets and stresses on reskilling and upskilling. In the long run However, it tends to create new employment markets that are better, larger and greener.
Deloitte has estimated that the global EV market will reach a tipping point by 2022 when the cost of ownership of an electric vehicle will be on par with IC engine vehicles, but result in a supply gap of almost 14 million EVs in 2030, a damper of sorts on the ambition to go green which could actually spur new manufacturing activity that could further spur the economy upwards. Moving forward, complete electrification of the private, public road transport sectors, and two wheelers could mean a big leap into the future. EV sharing could be another option that must be explored.
A dense national charging infrastructure will be needed that can trigger several new business opportunities. A judicial cost premium of owning an EV could even fill the coffers for the government. Driving range and time to charge, are primarily battery technology issues that make up the other top two concerns and currently the pre-occupation of battery suppliers and research institutions all over the world. How many charging points will be required is also a major constraint to the technology adoption. We should also start thinking how we can couple charging infrastructure to solar and battery systems, to reduce the dependency on gas-fuelled electrons. Further we need to recognise that the future may also see fuel cells, hydrogen and biofuels as potential green solutions.
A look at Norway, the bellwether state for EVs, offer a perspective. Norway, the world’s largest per capita market in electric vehicles, has more than 1,500 public charging points per million population, offers some benchmarks. With over 8,500 charging points, the EV share of sales is around 30 per cent, covering 2,100 sq km of urban Norway. It even offers free charging and special vehicle access to certain roads and parking. Several Automobile manufacturers and SIAM would be more than willing to help our country in this endeavour since the Government cannot do this alone and must necessarily work with private sector incumbents.
In a country where the number of middle-class households has been steadily increasing, families are affording more than one vehicle adding to the ever-increasing congestion on the roads. If a private or commercial vehicle ownership is desired, the government could put in place pragmatic policies to contain their numbers, including maintaining a high Certificate of Entitlement (COE) price, a target of zero vehicular growth, and the VES as they do in some major countries. Obviously, an ideal car less traffic comes at a price.
The fight for green energy and green environment, calls for radical measures. Can we phase out old petrol, diesel vehicles in the next decade? Can we target the commercial fleets or swap out a fleet of taxis or delivery vans to create a quick and huge impact on lowering carbon emissions? Of course, it means we have to up-skill technical personnel to ensure the reliability of the future electrified transport ecosystem. No one would grudge new skill and job opportunities.
More than 20 cities around the world have already echoed bold steps towards electrification of their private and public transport system. At least our major cities can follow suit? Innovation around the charging infrastructure and its intelligent distribution, new business and financing models and an enhanced consumer experience will be key enablers for its successful transition.
Whether we like or not, the IC engine appears to be on its last lap. More than nine countries have announced “bans” in the last few years. Last December, Paris, Madrid, Athens and Mexico City said they would remove diesel cars and vans by 2025. Norway will phase out conventional cars by 2025, followed by France and the United Kingdom in 2040 and 2050, respectively. Isn’t it time to change before the sword falls on us?