Be it quarterly labour surveys (QES), employment-unemployment surveys (EUS) or the NSSO’s survey or the periodic labour force survey (PLFS), they all have been painting a grim picture of job growth in the country. The economy also suggests a five-year low at 5% growth. So what is really in store? An economist is someone who knows more about money than the people who have it. I am neither an economist nor have the money. But old worldly wisdom and ability to extrapolate the environment shows that, while economic growth is good for job creation, it is important that growth occurs in sectors that have potential to absorb labour at a large scale. Some sectors and activities are more employment-intensive than others. New employment markets must be created since existing markets can saturate as the world order changes. Companies that grow for the sake of growth or that expand into areas outside their core business strategy often stumble. We have seen job less growth in the past. Will we be witness to job lost growth in future?
Six sectors illustrate the potential for new employment markets in this decade. Health care, business services, leisure and hospitality, construction, manufacturing, and retail. These sectors span a wide range of job types, skills and growth dynamics. They have a potential to generate up to 80% new jobs.
The economy will eventually recover. It However, cannot be either jobless or job lost recovery. The jobless recovery phenomena is a symptom of several deeper changes. Globally competitive companies in order to improve efficiencies, sacrificed productivity and profitability in the past until demand returned. Today they respond by reducing employment. Jobless recoveries seek higher order and transferable skills. A pyramid like job structure is metamorphosing into an almost vertical pipe like structure. Upskilling and reskilling However, must be the new mantra to meet the blues.
There are concerns, challenges and opportunities. We are the second lowest cost manufacturing destination globally even lower than China. But are we really leveraging that advantage? Time and cost escalation due to long gestation periods for capital projects, complex procedures and compliances derail many a time. Poor logistics and infrastructure reduce overall competitiveness. The opportunity lies in the fact that the government is actively promoting make in India and Start up India paradigms. Defence sector is a case in point. However, networking with the national laboratories and universities, facilitating investment with concrete plans and timelines must also be factored in. The public sector needs strengthening. DPSUs and OFs face greater challenges with increased competition from the private sector, in terms of productivity, resources and capacity utilization. Corporatization of Ordnance Factories calls for immediate implementation.
Creating wage jobs in manufacturing and service sectors has great potential in the medium term, but technology enabled agriculture can give dividends in the short-term. There are several highways built, but hardly any with either eating places or accident pickup spots. If we were to install a shack every 3 km, equip it with 5 people to tackle breakdowns, keep eyes for safety of on-road travellers, provide first aid and utilities, even house tea, coffee and other merchandise, the employment potential would be huge. Such shacks could even be auctioned en-masse to retail chains and advertisers earning enough revenue to take care of its construction and upkeep. A shack could be built for less than Rs. 10 lakhs. Factoring for salaries at 12 lakhs per year per team, half a million additional people would find jobs. That’s infrastructure created worth 10 lakhs across a million shacks or an infrastructure creation of 1.5 billion USD. The effort can easily be funded by a small fee levied at the time of purchase of vehicles.
Creating new cities to ease pressure on the existing ones, will boost infrastructural initiatives leading to new job markets. New projects like bidding for Commonwealth, Asian Games or the Olympics must be preceded with a detailed planning of infrastructural requirements like stadia, roads, new housing complexes and support systems. A massive job creation will happen. Dovetailing the national skills mission would just be what the doctor ordered.
Instead of an assured employment in the private or public sector, innovative business models must be promoted. A lot can be done with millions of cows with the farmers and others. A new start up “Internet of cows” can evolve. Monitoring cow’s health through a GPS enabled cow collar, monitoring WBC count, avoiding mastitis and helping raise milk production are all possible. Cloud, AI and data analytics can also be used to do an on the fly monitoring. Cow Fitbits could even monitor their health. Several opportunities wait to be explored in cow herding, AI based milk automation, intelligent cow sheds, massively growing grass, using even the non-arable land, literally making hay while sun shines, veterinary scientists, doctors, cow urine, ‘gobar’ processing plants and many others proving the proverbial cow to be a true ‘Kamadhenu’
Hundreds of Ph D’s and thousands of research publications are produced in the country without a converging theme. As in Germany, we need to create a Max Planck University model for Basic research and a Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft University model for applied research focussing on Productization rather than publishing papers alone. New products can happen in various sectors like Defence, Railways, Agriculture and Infrastructure etc, that would not only produce Indian products but also create new employment opportunities.
As much as recognising that we need more doctors, we need more hospital beds and Para Medics too. Every one of us spend at least Rs 150-250 per month just to speak on a mobile phone. The country’s telecom subscriber base crossed 120-crore mark according to a report released by TRAI. Even as little as Rs 25 levied on these services can build hospitals in tier 2 and tier 3 cities creating massive employment. It probably can even fund the PM’s ambitious plan, the “Ayushman Bharat-National Health Protection Scheme”. Private healthcare works on cross subsidy, where somebody pays a little extra to fund someone who cannot afford.
Entrepreneurship is one of the most important drivers for job creation. Moreover, social entrepreneurship offers not only a path for young people to transform their own lives, but also empower that of others. Providing tax relief and reducing regulations leads to job creation and new economic opportunities for small businesses. They are the backbone of our economy.